Whole Earth Forecaster Home
The fellow that can only see a week ahead is always the popular fellow, for he is looking with the crowd.
But the one that can see years ahead, he has a telescope but he can't make anybody believe he has it.
Will Rogers, The Autobiography of Will Rogers, 1949.
Weather
The Berg Timer has been researched thoroughly and found to have very high correlation to daily, weekly, monthly and yearly temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, wind speed and other weather indices in all world locations. The motions of weather systems are forecasted with respect to lag periods for each global location with respect to BT. The ebb and flow of weather systems exactly mirror atmospheric changes as forecasted by BT.
Daily Precipitation and Temperature 
Precipitation
An analysis was done for the central U.S. (North Dakota to Texas, Nevada to Oklahoma) when BT is equal to or greater than 7 strength between January 1997 and December 2002. Daily Precipitation amounts were totalled for at least 4 locations in each U.S. state for the days before, on and after BT =>7.
Below is the six-year summary of every time BT equalled 7 or more and how much precipitation occurred relative to that day in the Central U.S. Precipitation is least likely when BT = 0.
Applications are endless. Plan rainless vacations. Schedule your grand opening, outdoor wedding, community or sporting event. Pick a dry weekend for a barbeque or camping trip. Up to now you had to leave these things to chance. Not any more. And you can do this for any date in the future, anywhere in the world, accurately and reliably.
Temperature
Want to know when it will be REALLY hot in Miami? Below are compared daily mean temperature in Miami and The Berg Timer. High BT = High Temperature. Low BT = Low Temperature. See the specific locations above to get the correct lag period for your location. The lag period for Miami is six days.
Precipitation and Auto Accidents
Since Daily BT can forecast precipitation, it's not surprising that BT can also forecast automobile accident rates. Below are compared total daily auto accidents in Oklahoma and daily Berg Timer for the first half of 2000. Below that is a chart of Daily Tulsa Oklahoma Precipitation for the same period. BT has been shifted five days to the right to account for the five day lag period for Oklahoma.
Almost every peak in accidents coincides with a bottom in BT (BT has been inverted for easy viewing). Law enforcement and health agencies all over the world can use this to prepare for probable high accident periods.
Long-Term Precipitation
Below are compared precipitation and the 2year/2year Berg Timer since 1895 with forecast through 2019. Low BT = Low Precip.
The major bottoms of BT correctly forecasted drought for the middle to late 1930's, mid-50's, mid-70's, late 80's and early 2000's. This BT/Precipitation correlation was published before 1988 and is, to my knowledge, the only indicator to have correctly forecasted the 2001/2002 drought.
Forecast published Feb 2010: Our last drought ended in 2002 as forecasted. Precipitation increaseed in 2003 and peaked in 2004/2005 as forecasted. Then a decline into 2007 (which we got), then moving up to 2012 (which we got as of 2009). The years 2014-2015 will be very dry, probably drought years.
Tell your children and grandchildren to expect strong droughts in 2029-2030 because precipitation will peak in 2022 and then make a long steady decline until 2030. But then precipitation only makes a partial recovery to 2034 before again declining and causing another drought in 2035-2036. Could be very hard times in the late 2020's to mid-2030's if we're not prepared.
Long-Term Temperature
Below are compared temperature and inverted 2year Berg Timer since 1934 with forecast to 2020 with one year lag.
High BT = Low Temperature.
Note how BT correctly forecasted increasing temperature from the early 1990's to 1998. That was the hayday for the global warming enthusiasts. But, then BT fell back for several years in the early 2000's, and so did temperature and global warming talk. BT peaked again in 2005 and so did temperature. Then BT began a drop and so has temperature.
Such a strong correlation between BT and temperature causes me to side with "natural causes" in the global warming debate. The late 1990's and 2005 increase in temperature, due to BT, caused the global warming enthusiasts to put out warnings that the world was coming to an end. However they are silent now that temperature has declined, due to a declining BT.
Forecast is for temperature to generally increase through 2013, then decrease to 2017 and 2020 with a spike up in 2018. What will the global warming scientists and politicians do for a living during the decline in temperature over the next 10 years?
***The following Forecast was written on this webpage here in 2002, all came perfectly true: "Temperatures should trend lower and bottom in 2003, move higher and peak in 2005, with a low in 2006, a peak in 2008 and a bottom in 2009."
Global Stratosphere Temperature
Below are compared daily Global Low Stratosphere Temperature (degree Centigrade) and monthly Berg Timer from January 2000 through June 2003 with a lag of 40 days.
Like the U.S. ground temperature correlation above, high BT correlates negatively with temperature (BT has been inverted in the above chart for easy viewing). High BT = Low Temperature.
Data source: The National Space Science & Technology Center.
Arctic Ice
Below are compared Total Arctic Ice (departure from monthly means, Northern Hemisphere, million sq. k.) and The Berg Timer (shift delay of one month for more precise fit) from 1978 to 2002.
Major peaks and bottoms of BT and Arctic Ice correlate well. The previous Temperature correlations show that High BT = Low Temperature. So this correlation, High BT = More Ice, is consistent with the temperature analysis.
Lightning
Below are compared lightning strikes causing damage and deaths in the United States and The Berg Timer for 2003.
When BT is low, hitting "0", lightning is most likely, especially if the low BT occurs just before or after strong BT.
From May 1 to September 15, 2003, there were 35 deaths, 203 injuries and $23.5 million in property damage caused by lightning.
Wildfires
Below are compared wildfires in the United States and The Berg Timer for 2003.
This is the same time frame as the above lightning chart. Lightning causes most all wildfires. So, like lightning, when BT is low wildfires are most likely. From May 1 to September 15, 2003, there were 2 deaths, 54 injuries and $85 million in property damage caused by wildfires.
Dust Storms
Below are compared Dust Storms causing damage in the United States in 2003 and The Berg Timer. These storms occurred in California, New Mexico, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Texas and Nevada.
Severe dust storms are most probable when BT is low (peaks in the above chart) especially just before and after strong BT.
Note above that the most active dust storm period in succession in mid-August coincides with the strongest BT period of the year.
Dust storms in 2003 caused 2 deaths, 91 injuries and $248,000 in property damage.
Hail Storms
Below are compared Hail Storms (hail 3 inches in diameter or larger) causing damage in the United States in 2003 and The Berg Timer.
Severe Hail Storms are most probable when BT is low (peaks in the above chart) especially just before and after strong BT.
These storms caused 6 injuries, $26 million in property damage and $6 million in crop damage. You'll find on the Natural Disasters page that tornadoes also are more probable when BT is low.
Flood
Below are compared Flood reports in the United States in 2003 and The Berg Timer (3-day lag).
Flood, like precipitation, is most likely during low BT (peaks in the above chart), especially just before and after high BT.
This correlation covers the whole United States. But even though it's a compilation of all U.S. locations it's still quite accurate. For more specific forecasts for your location you might want to visit the Precipitation area. There you will find exact forecast directions for your location.
Floods in the U.S. in 2003 caused 82 deaths, 65 injuries, $2.4 Billion in property damage and $176 Million in crop damage.
Mars Wind Speed
The Viking I and II spacecraft gathered weather data from Mars. Below are compared daily wind speed on Mars, wind speed at Grand Island Nebraska, and the daily Berg Timer for 1 January through 20 July 1977.
Notice how the wind speeds of Mars and Nebraska share exact peaks and bottoms. This is because the timing of weather systems on both planets are caused by the same thing! We will continue to see this correlation with other planets which have an atmosphere. I hypothesize that the fluctuations in solar wind, predictable using The Berg Timer, cause the same timing of weather systems on all planetary bodies in the solar system that have an atmosphere. I have shown how Moonquakes share the same timing as Earthquakes, thus we can extend this hypothesis to assert that all planetary bodies share similar timing of both weather and seismic activity due to a common cause, that cause being solar activity as predictable by BT.
World Cloudiness, Temperature and Wind Speed
Below are monthly cloudiness in the United States Midwest and Europe, and monthly wind speed in the U.S. Midwest and South America compared to the 7-month and 2-month/2-month moving averages of the monthly Berg Timer.
The U.S. cloudiness and wind speed indices cover the area 33.75 to 46.25 N latitude by 93.75 to 106.25 W longitude, an area covering the central U.S.. The Europe cloudiness covers the area 38.75N to 58.75N by 36.25E to 11.25W, which is the entire European continent. The South America wind speed area is 10S to 40S by 60W to 80W.
Both the U.S. and Europe share the same negative correlation to cloudiness. High BT = Low Cloudiness. This makes sense considering the Precipitation correlation of High BT = Low Precipitation.
Data source: IRI Data Library.
I've researched the cloud data for all world-wide locations and have found that there are two specific, broad connected areas which respond positively and negatively to The Berg Timer.
The positive correlations between cloudiness and BT cover an area from Canada westward through Asia, then down through India, covering all of Africa except South Africa. Then it continues down through the Indian Ocean to Australia and Antarctica.
The negative correlations between cloudiness and BT cover an area starting in the Middle East going west through Europe, then covering the entire Atlantic Ocean area including the Arctic. Then continuing west through the continental United States and into the Mid and South Pacific.
Basically speaking, the positive correlations between cloudiness and BT cover an area in a "U" shape from Canada down through the America's (except U.S.) to Antarctica, then up through Australia, Africa and Asia.
The negative areas cover mostly the Atlantic Ocean area except Antarctica and the Mid to South Pacific.
The land areas which are in the negative areas are the Philippines/Indonesia, U.S., Europe to the Middle East and South Africa.
I studied wind speed from these areas and found that when cloudiness is high, wind speed is high, and when cloudiness is low, wind speed is low. This relationship is consistent for both the positively and negatively correlated areas. For instance, the chart above shows wind speed for the U.S. Midwest (a negatively correlated location with respect to BT) with its cloudiness. Wind speed follows cloudiness. Also shown is wind speed for South America, a positively correlated location. Note how wind speed for South America (a positive location) is opposite to the other indices. You'll find below all the locations and their particular response to BT (positive or negative). Wind speed and cloudiness will both move together in their respective locations, some locations moving the same, or positively with respect to BT and the others moving negatively, or opposite to BT.
Wind speed and cloudiness correlate positively because they are both effects shared by a moving weather front. As a front comes through, cloudiness is created by the rising warm air and the differences in pressure areas causes the increased wind.
Cloudiness - Berg Timer correlation locations:
|
Positive
|
Negative
|
Central Canada
|
Indonesia
|
Northern Canada
|
Philippines
|
Alaska
|
South Pacific Ocean
|
Bering Strait
|
Mid-Pacific Ocean
|
North Pacific Ocean
|
Western U.S.
|
Korea
|
NW U.S.
|
Siberia
|
Central U.S.
|
Moscow
|
NE U.S.
|
India
|
Bahamas
|
East & West Africa
|
South Atlantic
|
Indian Ocean
|
South Africa
|
Australia
|
Mid Atlantic
|
Antarctica
|
Greenland
|
Argentina
|
Arctic
|
Brasil
|
Europe
|
Venezuela
|
Middle East
|
Central America
|
|
Mexico
|
|
Texas/Mexico Border
|
|
